Immigrant – иммигрант, мигрант, переселенец
Population growth – прирост населения
Ilegal – нелегальный, запрещённый
Sustainability – устойчивость, устойчивое развитие
Residence – местожительство, местонахождение, местопребывание
Refugee – беженец
Census – перепись, сбор сведений
Permanently – постоянно, навсегда
Destination – место назначения, пункт назначения, цель (путешествия)
Barrier – граница, рубеж
To stabilize – стабилизировать, делать устойчивым, обеспечивать устойчивость
To host – принимать гостей, выступать в роли хозяина, принимающей стороны
To exceed – превышать, переступать пределы, границы
To contrast – противопоставлять, сравнивать, сопоставлять
To conceal – скрывать, утаивать, умалчивать
To estimate – оценивать, производить оценку, устанавливать цену
To immigrate – иммигрировать, переселяться
To motivate – побуждать, принуждать (к чему-л.)
To liquidate – уничтожить, разделаться, отменить, избавиться
To associate – объединяться, соединяться
Immigration by the numbers
The key factor in immigration is the numbers. Almost nothing will have more impact on how you live the rest of your life in the United States or the kind of country that your children and grandchildren live in than how Congress sets these numbers. For the 200 years from 1770 to 1970 this country took in about 250,000 immigrants a year. Congress brings a lot more than that today and I’m going to show you the future that current numbers, if not changed, will give us. I find this to be an incredibly frightening future. Some of you are going to be angry when you see it, but please remember that if immigration is a problem, the problem is not immigrants. The problem is immigration policy and the officials who set that policy. If you’re an immigrant, nothing I say here tonight is a criticism of you. You have the same stake in America’s future as I do. Were sticking to numbers tonight, good solid noncontroversial numbers based on data and projections from the U.S. Census Bureau. Now this was the United States at the end of the first census in 1790 when it found 4 million people. We grew incredibly rapidly from 1790 to 1915 just before WWI. The Census Bureau declared that we no longer had a frontier. The second one hundred million grew much faster to 1970. What was the role of immigration in those first 200 million? Well contrary to popular myth we were never a country in which new immigrants and the births to immigrants were the majority of our population growth. The vast majority of our population growth always came from our incredibly high native fertility. Even at the end of this period in the 1950s and 1960s, we were still running immigration that was around the average 250,000, but all that changed after 1970. In a time of great national concern about sustainability , the Baby Boomers, starting to enter their childbearing years, adopted a fertility that was replacement level about an average of 2 children per couple. The green that you see rising above the blue is the population growth that would’ve happened if Congress had not forced higher immigration. It would rise to 257 million in 2020, then basically stabilize through 2050. This was the Earth Day vision that the class of 1970 had chosen. Instead, Congress constantly increased immigration from 1970 on. In the 1970s, Congress increased immigration levels from the 250,000 it was traditionally from the 50s and 60s to 425,000 a year. And then in the 1980s, Congress increased immigration still further from the 425,000 a year to 635,000 per year. That wasn’t enough for Congress. The population wasn’t growing fast enough, so in 1990 they passed another big increase and since 1990 we have averaged about... about... the uh…this is not the… yeah this is…this is really kind of an unsustainable level. Uh here let me… Since 1990 Congress has been running immigration at more than a million a year, 4 times higher than the traditional level. Now this doesn’t even include the illegal immigration. The American people never asked for any of these increases. Polls show that there was never a time when much more than 10% of the American people wanted higher immigration. In 1996, President Clinton’s National Commission on Sustainability urged big reductions in immigration back to something like traditional levels in order to allow the population of the United States to stabilize so we can be a sustainable society, but Congress ignored those recommendations. Now this is what the Census says actually happened since 1970. This is the actual population growth to 2010. The red represents the population growth forced by Congress in its immigration decisions. Instead of the US never reaching the third hundred million it reached the third hundred million before 2010 and for the first time in our history, the majority of our population growth came from new immigrants and the births to immigrants. Using CensusBureau projections of fertility and mortality, I would like to know what lies in our future. The fact is Congress has paid no attention to that future. It generally operates on what’s ahead in one or two years or maybe the next election cycle. For the most part our public policy is set without any regard to what it’s going to lead to in future generations. They keep the future draped from us. Lets see what’s behind that curtain. As you can see we’re headed for our fourth hundred million by 2040, and by the time today’s college students enter the last phase of their career in 2050, the Census Bureau data suggest we will have 437 million people in our national community. Look at the difference between that red line that Congress has taken us to and the green line, which was the choice of the American people through their own private decisions about their family size. Imagine how that changes the way this country handles its biggest problems. And of course the trajectory doesn’t stop at 2050, it moves on and lets see where were headed by the end of this century. Let's move this 2050, let’s move it over here and lets go from 2010 to 2100. Oh my! It’s off the charts again. We probably would have to blow the roof off of this building to see the top of this. Let’s pull this down so instead of the 200 million we’ll start down here at 300 million. And as you can see we will be adding our fifth hundred million in 2070 and our sixth hundred million just before the end of this century. Before apparently hitting 625 million people. That’s approaching a half billion more people in this country than we had in 1970. Look around you. The people of the United States are not able to achieve the quality of life they want with 300 million people. Are we really comfortable making our descendants live with 600 million people packed into this country? This will happen because our immigration choices today. This is not something that could be, it’s not something that might be, this is something that will be if we don’t change the immigration numbers. But if you want a different future, you can pretty dramatically change that future. What if we help the class of 2010 do what the class of 1970 had intended to do before Congress destroyed the stabilizing vision ? This yellow line represents the change that can happen with our population growth trajectory if we would immediately adopt a replacement level immigration. That is bringing in the same number of immigrants as people who leave our country every year. And right now that would be around our traditional level. There would be immediate reductions in infrastructure demands for those of us alive today. We can enjoy the benefits of cutting in half all the extra demands on our infrastructure, cutting in half all the extra congestion. By 2050, we would have 80 million fewer people to accommodate than if we leave the status quo immigration in place. 80 million. How much is 80 million? 80 million was the entire population of the entire United States when President Theodore Roosevelt was desperately trying to create national parks to keep those 80 million people from destroying the natural heritage of this country. Now we have four times that much. The difference in the scenarios becomes really astounding when you go out to the end of the century. The question is, do we allow immigration to double our population and add another 300 million in our communities at the end of this century? Or do we reduce immigration so that we hold the extra demands on our society to perhaps one quarter? The people living in 2100 will have no choice in this. That is a future that does not have to happen. We can make the right choice now.
Be creative: The best ad
Be motivated: The starfish
Once a man was walking along a beach. The sun was shining and it was a beautiful day. Off in the distance he could see a person going back and forth between the surf's edge and and the beach. Back and forth this person went. As the man approached, he could see that there were hundreds of starfish stranded on the sand as the result of the natural action of the tide.
The man was stuck by the the apparent futility of the task. There were far too many starfish. Many of them were sure to perish. As he approached, the person continued the task of picking up starfish one by one and throwing them into the surf.
As he came up to the person, he said: "You must be crazy. There are thousands of miles of beach covered with starfish. You can't possibly make a difference." The person looked at the man. He then stooped down and pick up one more starfish and threw it back into the ocean. He turned back to the man and said: "It sure made a difference to that one!"
List of questions for discussion
1. Do you have a positive or negative image of immigration?
2. What rules on immigration would you like your country to have?
3. What would happen to the world’s population if all immigration laws ended?
4. Would you report an illegal immigrant to the police?
5. What are the benefits of immigration?
6. Do you think immigration helps us all understand each other better?
7. What world country do you think is most opposed to immigration?
8. Do you think immigrants should pass a test based on the language and culture of the country they want to live in?
9. Has immigration around the world been successful?
10. Does immigration mean creating cosmopolitan societies?
11. Would you like a blue card or a green card?
12. When do you think immigration became a social issue?
13. Would you like to live and work in another country?
14. Do you think immigrants get a raw deal in the countries they live in?
15. Is illegal immigration a problem where you live?
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